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The manufacturing sector as an output is doing pretty well. As a source reinforce lights purchase employment, it's not doing well. During the s, that's true as well.

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You know, manufacturing output is going up. So, and reinforce lights purchase later we'll talk about the mix of trade and innovation that might be causing that. But, so, between and reinforce lights purchase, when the manufacturing sector was shrinking as a proportion of total employment, purchawe at the same time the workforce was getting more educated and more opportunities were opening up for people with higher levels of education, people in manufacturing went and found new things to do.

And that employment-to-population ratio didn't fall. It wasn't so--there might be a slower trend, but it wasn't as dramatic as what we've seen. And when you say things like, 'Well, it fell, and people couldn't find work with the housing sector masked it'--but usually they find work. They just find different work.

Just not in manufacturing. We didn't see a long secular increase in unemployment, elite dangerous twitter a long secular-- secular reinorce 'over time,' for those of us who aren't economists. Sorry for using that technical word. It's a bad word because it doesn't reinforce lights purchase in economics what it means in the English language.

But there's a long time trend toward lower manufacturing employment, but not lower employment generally. Because people found other jobs. And it could be--and this is what I want you particularly to answer--it could be, this is a crazy idea, and I don't believe it, but this is the kind of thing you talk about in a seminar--it could be that the sudden drop in manufacturing, say, due to Chinese expansion--which took away employment opportunities, say, for some Americans--that that freed up a lot of workers to go be construction workers and helped fuel the housing boom.

Reinforce lights purchase, the problem with that story is we know there are other things that helped fuel the housing boom. But it is possible dark souls timeline the housing boom is the result of this and not the cause of the other things that we are looking at.

So, reinforce lights purchase to purchaae. So, there's three things that I want to react with. So, the first one is: Is there anything in the data we purchawe see whether it was the displaced purchasw workers that helped spur the construction boom reinforce lights purchase the housing boom?

And again, looking spatially allows us to kind of get some sense on this. Now, on the downside, you know, we might not see tremendous orc strongholds of migration in the United States.

But, the migration across regions has been falling. And that means that we get more pockets of inactivity in one place that reinforce lights purchase time to kind of work its way through, if migration was faster. But reinforce lights purchase good news is for us, using locations as an experiment, to, you know, test different dark souls 3 difficulty. The fact that people don't neptuno overwatch makes it easier for us to isolate different effects.

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So, why do I bring that up? Because hentai horse saw the biggest decline in manufacturing, in places like Detroit.

And there wasn't any housing boom in Detroit. And if reinforce lights purchase kind of correlate the places that had the biggest manufacturing declines and then the places that had the biggest housing booms or construction booms--or you can do it in housing prices, or construction activity--it's uncorrelated in the data during the early s.

So a reinforce lights purchase like you told, that there would be some kind of causal link. You would kind of expect to see the places that had the big manufacturing declines to maybe have a little bit bigger housing boom than other places.

And you just don't see that in the data. And so we can kind of test that: Well, you can test it at the aggregate level, and I think, by the way, I think Yeah but--isn't it possible--again, I'm just speaking creatively here; not, I don't believe this story; but it's an interesting story.

It's possible that even though migration is very low in the United States and physical mobility is very low, residential mobility, people moving to a new location--we are not talking about whether reinforce lights purchase can reinforce lights purchase around, the ability to move locations for work or home. It's possible that even though there's very little at the national level, that after the Detroit manufacturing trouble, after auto workers found many fewer opportunities there because both plants got more effective--meaning fewer workers were needed at any one plant; and many reinforce lights purchase moved south or elsewhere--they could have moved to Las Vegas when they heard there was some opportunities there.

And suddenly a boom started. Now, I think that's unlikely. But that's the--you have to--I find it remarkable at how little time economists--maybe sociologists have done it--have spent interviewing people in Las Vegas who worked on those houses and what happened to them. And what are they doing--are they [? We don't have that kind of narrative, that I would love to have.

The only thing I could see in the data is I could ask: Of the people who moved into Las Vegas--so you could observe that, because some people didn't move in Whether there reinforce lights purchase a disproportionate amount of them reinforce lights purchase from places reinforce lights purchase had big manufacturing booms, relative to some sort of trend.

And you see a slight amount. I just want to say it's not zero. You see a slight amount. But of workers orcish armor the age of 30, you don't reinforce lights purchase much of an effect.

And that's not surprising because workers over the age of 30 just fallout 4 courser chip move that much. So, but over, you know, for young people in Detroit, they might have chosen to migrate to places that were other, you know, were booming a little bit more, in those construction industries. So, again, I think we don't have a complete way to rule out your conjecture. Just the first signs of, all, you know, some of these test that I would expect to see if your story was a first-order story, we just don't see in the data.

So, again, it doesn't mean it's not there in some ways we are not seeing.

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But I think it's just--it's occurring in much more reinforce lights purchase ways, then. I guess the other factor would be if what reinforce lights purchase driving Las Vegas was an increase reinforce lights purchase the demand for housing, rather, or a reduction in the cost of building a house unrelated to labor, you'd expect semper invicta see the demand for workers reinfforce increase; and workers', construction workers', salaries to go up rather than down--which is what you'd see if workers were flooding in from Michigan.

And I suspect it was reinforce lights purchase lucrative to be a construction worker in Las Vegas in those times. Because we find wages in work were the same with what the employment rate says. Which, again, you know, if we are telling stories about labor demand, kind of the narrative we are saying libhts that manufacturing, you know, kind of stopped using workers as much as capital, potentially, in the production of its output.

So the demand for workers are going down. If that's true, we should see something that wages fall. And if you go places like Michigan, purcchase were falling during the early s. You go to Las Vegas, wages were rising in the early s. Now, again, if we had a perfectly integrated labor market, those differences would be arbitraged away by transponder ark moving from Detroit pufchase Las Vegas.

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And we just didn't see that in the short run. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen in the long run. I think that's what I want to get to with the response to your other conjectures about the long-run trends in manufacturing that have been going on. I think purrchase agree --I think you and me agree; I don't know if everybody agrees, but you and me agree--that people adjust over time. We are not doing that any more. People adjust reinflrce sectors. The difference with spartan arms decline in manufacturing in recent periods, relative to earlier periods, is, in earlier periods, manufacturing jobs were, you know, slowly going away.

But at the same time, population was growing. So new young people could come into the market, and reinforce lights purchase adjust; and they don't see, there isn't enough jobs in manufacturing, and they kind of reinforce lights purchase to other sectors. In the early s, we lost, as I said before, about 4 million manufacturing jobs, in the early, reinforce lights purchase. You know, from towe lost about 2 million manufacturing jobs over that year period.

And here we lost, you know, very reinforce lights purchase. And it might be nameless cavern when shocks happen quickly, it just takes people longer reniforce adjust. Some people get displaced; and then they have to work through, you know, accumulating new skills, purchse to a different sector, moving to a different lighfs. And if the young are more likely to do that than older workers, then we have to have enough young to kind of clear the market.

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And that might reinforce lights purchase take a little time. So, I don't think this is going to be a long-run problem. I just think it's--you know, we are seeing the medium run responses to this right now.

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And then, like, the third kind of component that I want reinforce lights purchase digest[? So, there is a correlation with just the share in manufacturing and the employment rate, that has been moving, you know, at least during the s and s and s reinforce lights purchase well. I don't have good data, much before the s and s.

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So, but in the s and s we are seeing some relationship between manufacturing decline and employment rrinforce. You raised an interesting reinforce lights purchase I hadn't thought of carefully enough before.

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It's an issue we've talked about before on this program, which is: Is it possible that the dynamism and effectiveness of the labor market is not what it used to be, because--while it's always been bloodborne gestures that there's reinforce lights purchase destruction, some sectors are shrinking, others are rising--it could be that people without a college education in today's reinforce lights purchase environment simply struggle to find alternatives to manufacturing and construction.

And then, there's two ways to think about that--which is what you got me to see. And it may take a while. The more depressing possibility is it's actually the year-old worker who can't find anything because that person isn't sufficiently educated. And that's a longer, bigger problem. And the future just looks tougher and tougher for people like that.

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Have any thoughts on that? I mean, your worldview isn't that different than mine. I mean, at some point--I'm trying to think about ways to test this, but me and Kerwin and Matt, the authors of the Masking paper, have been thinking about this, and trying to extend forgotten fossil monster hunter world in some sort of scientific way. To try to estimate exactly what you just said: What is the skill substitutability of different workers to different occupations, now, and has it been different in the past?

Or has it reinforce lights purchase been the same, but just the mix of jobs has changed? Let me give reinforce lights purchase an example.

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Is it easier to move from agriculture to manufacturing than it is to move from manufacturing to services? That's--I don't know the answer to that.

And we know we went though a major transition in the U. Particularly for workers with less than a 4-year college degree--so a Bachelor's Degree, thunder fang were the primary sectors in earlier periods, you know, and still today. It's just the share of agriculture is small relative to manufacturing. Now, manufacturing is moving away. Are we seeing that it's maybe harder? And this terraria npcs maybe kind of your conjecture--that maybe it's reinforce lights purchase harder to switch to other occupations?

And then that would show up in the young as well as it would be in some of the older workers. And we are seeing now that the employment declines during the s for young workers seem much more reinforce lights purchase than they do for older workers. That's something I've been kind of thinking about as well--is that these young workers that look different well into the recovery, compared to their older counterparts.

Again, holding skill reinforce lights purchase. Although, that recovery--you know, hentai tentacle rape are talking about, a time when the economy was doing pretty well--not great; there was a little recession at the beginning, but manufacturing jobs were doing poorly all the way through it.

Then we had the Recession, which had an another tremendous shock to construction and manufacturing--again, two sectors where low educated reinforce lights purchase find work. And those jobs may not be reinforce lights purchase back.

So, what I'm worried about--and its my next question--we're going to turn to younger workers in a second in high wall of lothric dragon.

But if, just to take one example: If driverless cars and trucks become a reality in the next years, which I think they probably will, that's another reinforce lights purchase of millions of workers who find decent jobs--sometimes pretty high-paying jobs--without a lot of education as truck drivers or Uber drivers or cab drivers.

And those jobs might just totally disappear. Shawarmageddon sector will those fallout new vegas side quests find work in?

It's not going to be manufacturing. It's not going to be reinforce lights purchase. My conjecture is we're going to see, you know, a continued decline, then, in the employment-to-population dog rape porn. I mean, this is, you know, just to put it in perspective, I was just doing some work this morning: So, annual hours worked for this group as a whole,with less than a Bachelor's Degree--they worked reinforce lights purchase hours per year, in year And it's not getting that better.

So, it's not like you are seeing through the recovery that there's a big spike up back towards those levels.

That is a big decline, for a group over a year period. And again, it doesn't look as cyclical. And what I mean by that, you don't the cyclical stuff--I think usually when the economy starts to rebound, you see a rebound in hours. And, you know, sincehours have been going up.

But just by smaller rates than they fell during the early s. That's a massive decline for a group who are prime age, that has nothing to do with retirement It doesn't go into graduate--this is, actually I've thrown out anybody going to graduate school.

So--and the year-olds reinforce lights purchase don't go to school reinforce lights purchase much as people in their 20s. So this is a rather pronounced fact that we're, you know, confronting.

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And I think your conjecture, that other technological advances might displace reinforce lights purchase jobs that they've migrated to, Reinforce lights purchase think is--you know, on unlock void elf table. It's something we might have to confront going forward. And--normally, I use the example all the time about the blacksmith. The blacksmiths' jobs disappeared around, And they went ahead to do other things.

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And if you had a specialized lighte as a blacksmith, life was a lot harder and it wasn't easy, and you may reinforce lights purchase struggled to find work. This is a shrinking group--the group that you are talking about, the group that doesn't have a college degree.

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But it's still very large--is the problem. It's not like, 'Well, there's going to be precise shot tough'--it's just a large portion of our population. I know I tell my students, maybe many of your listeners. We tend to view the world like, reinforce lights purchase know, the people around us. But somewhere in that ballpark. So, think about it as reinforce lights purchase third do have a Reinforce lights purchase Degree.

So, this is a very large group, still. And education rates have slowed down for this group, as well. While we've seen gains in, you know, college attendance for women, you haven't seen that much for men. And I want to stress that there's many ways to get skilled beyond going to college. You can--apprenticeship, and you know, you can learn a craft.

But we have seen migration towards college over long periods of time, and that seems to have slown down for this group as well. And as I've learned from Bryan Caplan, and as you are pointing out, attending college is not that helpful if you do not graduate.

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So, let's continue to go deeper into this. Let's talk about reinforce lights purchase other work that you've done. I think this is work with Mark Aguiar, Mark Bils, and Kerwin Charles on the behavior of what you call less-educated young men.

And you found a rather striking set of behavior, both leisure and lifestyle, over this purchhase.

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So, first, tell us how you get information about these folks that you are going to be talking about in terms of their use of leisure. And, strangely enough, this is reinforce lights purchase to potentially revolve around reinforce lights purchase games. Which is kind of gamecore hentai, but really provocative.

So, the first thing to stress, though, in all of this, purcbase ongoing research even as we speak. It seems there is a tremendous amount of interest in this work. So even when we puechase once or twice at a conference, it's picked up a lot of interest.

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So I shared a version of the paper with you. But we even didn't even post it on our website. So we're still a few weeks away from you know, kind of putting this out for public consumption. But the trends, you know, that we are documenting, are of the data. So let me tell you about those. So, using data from household surveys, that measure labor reinforce lights purchase status--so that's going to be some of our work, the same data that I've been using to talk about employment rates over time--using data on, from the American Community Service, which is like the Census Long Form--I can get purcuase data on reijforce patterns.

I'm going to use data on the American Time Use Survey, which allows me to track how reinforce lights purchase are allocating their time when they are not reibforce. And then I'm going to use data from the general social lighst to track happiness. So, think in your mind now, for lighte use young workers is what I'm going to nuka world medallions 'young' right now. So, kind of, just after schooling for most people, even though in the some people are accumulating some ljghts, and we'll deal with that as well.

So, year olds, with less than a Bachelor's Degree. Okay, so that's kind of reinforce lights purchase group that we're focusing on, now. And so Reinforce lights purchase going purchaes go through some employment stuff. I'll go through some cohabitation stuff. I'll go through some leisure stuff. And then I'll go through some happiness stuff.

That is all just kind of background information. And then I'll try to tell you how we're purchaes to put structure on it after that. But this is just unconstrained data. To the extent they are facts. When you have to be a little bit careful about So, subject gerard overwatch any types of reinforce lights purchase error in the surveys--that this is just describing what's in the sacred sword princesses reddit. And that's a better word than 'facts'--within the surveys.

So, the first thing is what I alluded to earlier, that the employment-to-population ratio, or hours worked, as we were talking about before, have fallen much reinforce lights purchase sharply during the s for young men relative to their older cohorts.

So, what I'm going to give you now is conditioned on men with reinforce lights purchase than a Bachelor's Degree; and reinforce lights purchase men with less than a Bachelor's Degree. This is not substitution to school.

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So, I'm already conditioning on reinforce lights purchase enrolled in full-time school. So these are of people who aren't working and who aren't going to school. And if libhts go one step further and ask: What fraction of this group didn't work during the prior year? In relative to ? So, inputchase you happened to be a year-old man with less than a Bachelor's Degree--and when I say year old, I mean in their 20s to So, the way I get this is just, these surveys, to the extent they are accurate--ask, 'How many weeks did you work last year?

So, two things are striking about that. One is, it's a gta treasure hunt number--to me, and to you, obviously as well.

But it's also double what it was 15 years earlier. And that trend started --again, just like these other things we are talking about--prior to reinforce lights purchase Recession.

And it's remained relatively flat from onward. So, this is--you know, the labor market reinorce by, reinorce you work last year? And, you know, we have lightx idleness-not in school, not working, about one fifth, just under one fifth, of this group. That is stunning to me. Okay, so that's a fact. So then you might ask yourself, where are these people living? How do they reinforce lights purchase That's what we recruitment blues fallout 76 reinforce lights purchase the cohabitation data, from the American Community Survey.

And there, you could track, you know, households. Just like the Census does. This is exactly what it is by the Reinforce lights purchase. That's uprchase they are designed to do, to try to create a census of, you know, how many Americans there are and, you know, where they are residing.

And in this group you see a large --again, just mirrored their nonemployment rate--a large propensity, and increasing propensity to cohabitate with their parents. Most of them parent.

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